Semi-daily Thoughts

scottvanv on October 28th, 2014

The market is back to about where I said to get out … we’re not quite out of this pattern, and the odds of a precipitous drop are higher than normal, but are far less than a couple of weeks ago.  If we go above $17,500 on the Dow, I think we’ll go quite a […]

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scottvanv on October 9th, 2014

While I have no positions currently (even in my 401K), and haven’t for some time, I have still been watching the market, if just not as closely as when I’m active.  At the moment, I see no reason to be in the market, even for the longest term investors.  You can simply go to cash, […]

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scottvanv on November 25th, 2013

“Keep stops tight on your stocks as when this market pulls back even 1-2%, the better names often sell off much harder, giving back in one or two days what it took one or two weeks to achieve. QE forgives the general averages while higher octane stocks can get pummeled.”  — MLR, Premarket Pulse 11/25/13, […]

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scottvanv on October 9th, 2013

Here’s a very good article on the limitation of QE that I found by Googling “Limitations of QE” written a year ago.  He’s a Brit, and there’s very little information on who he is or what his credentials are.  Having said that, his article made a lot of sense to me — it was good […]

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scottvanv on August 27th, 2013

Below is a weekly chart of the Dow.  Look how beautifully it’s cornering itself into the intersection of the red and yellow lines, which were drawn months ago.  Just two days ago I almost wrote a post stating that the recent 2 day rally would be followed by at least a few down days, into […]

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scottvanv on August 10th, 2013

I haven’t posted for a while because nothing has really happened.  The Dow dropped a bit and then came right back up to the big red line from my last post.  And stayed there.  And then today I read this: an article about Advance Decline (A/D) lines and how they can help to predict long […]

Continue reading about The Beginning of the End?

scottvanv on June 18th, 2013

The next Big Red Line is here…this time on the Dow, not the S&P.  This is a multi-generational tipping point for the market.  And it still amazes me just how well the market hews to these lines.  There is nothing fundamental that I see that would be likely to take us down precipitously, and a […]

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scottvanv on May 8th, 2013

TREX, YY, NSM, OCN, FLT, URI, EOG, FOSL An interesting side note:  I do not look at fundamentals as I let others services filter that for me as I simply do not have the time.  Generally, these are high growth stocks with strong fundamentals that institutional investors have shown a strong proclivity to be purchasing. […]

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scottvanv on May 6th, 2013

It’s getting more and more likely that we’re in for a multi-decade bull market.  The S&P cleared my “Scooby Doo” hurdle…next one is the Dow at around 16,000.   But I’m getting more and more confident that we’ve made it through this mess.   I’ve heard multiple people saying that Europe has bottomed (Jim Cramer […]

Continue reading about S&P “Scooby Doo” Hurdle Cleared on Friday

scottvanv on April 19th, 2013

As I’ve mentioned before, trading is a lot like poker.  Poker has “tells”, or small things that can clue you to someone’s hand, such as facial expressions.  A common stock market Tell is when the Dow is moving against the broader indices.  Since there are only 30 stocks on the Dow, it’s relatively easy for […]

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