Semi-daily Thoughts

scottvanv on September 12th, 2017

Just based on the charts, as we come to new highs, looks like it’s safer to be in stocks right now than my last post suggested … Please note that we’re at a pretty high valuation, so I’m pretty quick to pull the trigger on a go-to-cash recommendation.  Having said that, this bull market could continue […]

Continue reading about Water is saf(er)

scottvanv on August 10th, 2017

Just a short note to keep up my documented streak of calling market turns.  Today’s drop could portend a much larger drop.  There’s no harm in going to cash at the moment.

Continue reading about Risk is high that a short or longer term top is in

scottvanv on December 7th, 2016

A little over one year and three months ago, in my last post, I said, “…best case we’re probably just going to sideways for a couple years.”  Well, we’ve certainly hit my best case.  I’m posting now because my predicted upturn is coming a bit sooner than my prediction.  See chart just below … the […]

Continue reading about Hope has returned to the land …

So … this precipitous drop got me interested in the market again.  I’m still 100% cash, so I’ve only been monitoring in terms of what the economy is doing. But, I’m pretty confident in this post, so I may just start trading the general market next week. I’ll let you know if I get in, […]

Continue reading about Don’t Panic: Short Term Target Correction & Dow 22,000 in 2023

scottvanv on August 20th, 2015

Overall, the chart patterns look ominous.  Absolutely no reason to be in equities right now. My best guess is that the Nasdaq will drop to around 3,900 before bottoming, and it will likely be a sharp drop. Dow somewhere around 14,400.  Let’s see if I’m right …

Continue reading about Lick Your Wounds, Go to Cash

scottvanv on October 28th, 2014

The market is back to about where I said to get out … we’re not quite out of this pattern, and the odds of a precipitous drop are higher than normal, but are far less than a couple of weeks ago.  If we go above $17,500 on the Dow, I think we’ll go quite a […]

Continue reading about You could get back in here

scottvanv on October 9th, 2014

While I have no positions currently (even in my 401K), and haven’t for some time, I have still been watching the market, if just not as closely as when I’m active.  At the moment, I see no reason to be in the market, even for the longest term investors.  You can simply go to cash, […]

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scottvanv on November 25th, 2013

“Keep stops tight on your stocks as when this market pulls back even 1-2%, the better names often sell off much harder, giving back in one or two days what it took one or two weeks to achieve. QE forgives the general averages while higher octane stocks can get pummeled.”  — MLR, Premarket Pulse 11/25/13, […]

Continue reading about Why I was sucking my thumb

scottvanv on October 9th, 2013

Here’s a very good article on the limitation of QE that I found by Googling “Limitations of QE” written a year ago.  He’s a Brit, and there’s very little information on who he is or what his credentials are.  Having said that, his article made a lot of sense to me — it was good […]

Continue reading about Opining on the Impasse

scottvanv on August 27th, 2013

Below is a weekly chart of the Dow.  Look how beautifully it’s cornering itself into the intersection of the red and yellow lines, which were drawn months ago.  Just two days ago I almost wrote a post stating that the recent 2 day rally would be followed by at least a few down days, into […]

Continue reading about A Beautiful Picture