Semi-daily Thoughts
So…I finally took my dark colored glasses off…having missed a really nice run up that I recognized, but was so scared that the world was ending that I couldn’t pull the trigger. Now I think this rally is over-extended, so I’m waiting for a pull back. But, it just might not, although many many top [...]
Continue reading about Entered 6 positions, have already exited 1…and a little belief
Man is this market tough. I did say the bull market could end at any time, and it just might have today. Now the good thing is that something held me back from entering those positions I mentioned on my last post (thus the “without” title). I just could not bring myself to pull the [...]
We are in the midst of a bull market, and we have been for about a month. I got so sucked in to the view that the world was falling apart that I ignored the “tightening up” of the market, a sure sign that things were improving. Now, this could falter at any time as [...]
So..by now perhaps many of you are thinking that I was crying wolf. I’ve never claimed to try to be 100% correct. And right now, while the market has tightened up, it could still go either way. I’m still 100% cash, but if things start looking better, I might tentatively put my toe in the [...]
I’ve had many, many interesting discussions since my last post…generally ranging from “I don’t believe you,” to “I believe you, but I’m not going to anything about it.” First, let’s just say this. I could be wrong. And after playing years of poker, training my brain to make bets with limited information, based simply on probabilities, I’ve learned [...]
Continue reading about I could be wrong…but what if I’m not?
Flash Player 9 or higher is required to view the chartClick here to download Flash Player nowView the full VIX chart at Wikinvest Getting the daily timing of this is very, very difficult. But, we are in for a major crash. The VIX (volatility index) is declining along with a decline in the market (it [...]
Continue reading about Back at the precipice: get out of the market, even your retirement accounts
Quite a rally. I took my Puts off (I lost less than 1% of my portfolio, with the potential for upwards of a 10-20% gain in a few days). We may have put off the inevitable for a while…I’ll be watching this quite closely. I think what this does signal is that the Fed will [...]
I just finished reading a book called “Conquer the Crash.” This book was written in 2002, and it was like reading the book of a movie I’d already seen…except that I was living it for the last few years. It’s written by Robert Prechter, who uses Elliot Wave theory (fractal waves applied the stock market) [...]
Continue reading about I’m on the other side of the trade with Warren Buffet
My last post was the exact day the October rally started (I think, didn’t check — but certainly close). Three days ago, I almost wrote a blog with the quoted title. The market indicator I subscribe to (it uses similar leading stock behavior techniques similar to those that got me out of the market prior [...]
So…read back through my blog posts…I’ve mentioned many times that the market is us, we are the market. My cousin, David, just forwarded a blog to me which applies fractals to the stock market, called Elliot Wave theory. Now, fractals are a mathematical concept that applies to all facets of the universe, including life, and [...]
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