Semi-daily Thoughts

scottvanv on May 28th, 2020

I wish I had more time to spend showing you the patterns I see, but, I don’t. I’ll have to suffice to keeping up my writings simply on timing the market, which at a multi-year scale is incredibly easy. My last post said that there was no “all-clear” back to a relatively safe environment, but […]

Continue reading about Current pattern very bullish

scottvanv on April 2nd, 2020

To be clear, I have yet to provide an “all clear” yet. The market is still waaaaay too volatile to be calling a true bottom. Also, I do this contextually … I don’t just look at the “tea leaves” of these charts. I’m quite worried that this virus downturn is going to be far worse […]

Continue reading about No “all clear” yet

scottvanv on March 24th, 2020

… more to come.

Continue reading about Pretty sure we bottomed yesterday …

scottvanv on March 17th, 2020

So … yesterday around midday I took a look at the fact that we had dropped 3,000 points and bounced. Unfortunately I wasn’t watching CNBC all morning like I was in 2009, so I couldn’t “feel” what was coming from the NY traders through the hosts to truly call a bottom. This left me a […]

Continue reading about Got Bottom? (No, not a Coronavirus TP joke!)

scottvanv on February 25th, 2020

As usual, a big market drop got me interested in the market again. Above please find a very long term look at the Dow … since before the Great Depression (suggest clicking to enlarge). I drew the red line five years ago(!), and note how we’ve been bumping up against it recently. Also note how […]

Continue reading about Massive Inflection Point

scottvanv on June 25th, 2018

Pretty sure no one is using this blog for market timing, and no one should be.  I had meant to post for some time that the market hadn’t really firmed like I thought it was going to per my last post, so when the market dropped a lot today, I thought I should post again.  We’re […]

Continue reading about Not paying enough attention …

scottvanv on May 21st, 2018

If I were still studying the market rigorously, the timings of these “get in, get out” posts would be much better.  With that said, if one had gotten out on my last post, you’d have mitigated a possible much larger decline, while still only losing out on around a 4% gain.  Looking a bit further […]

Continue reading about Market firming

scottvanv on April 3rd, 2018

Without going into a lot of detail (simply due to the fact that I can’t spend a lot of time writing these anymore) … a larger decline is looking more and more likely based on some ugly charts.  Not a good time to be in equities.

Continue reading about Larger decline looking more likely

scottvanv on February 8th, 2018

I know that all 2 of you that read this blog are cursing me for not getting you out of the market prior to this precipitous decline.  But, I’m not actively trading at the moment, so the market only really piques my interest when something crazy like these big drops occur, so this happened too […]

Continue reading about Decline happened too fast (sorry) … huge crash not likely.

This tax bill is rather Bigly.  It drops the Fed corporate tax rate by 40%(!), which brings the S&P 500 PE Ratio to around 18.6 (including an average of tacked-on local taxes), not far above the long term average (gee, it’s almost like the market knew this was going to happen).  However, the Shiller PE […]

Continue reading about Tax bill just brought the S&P PE Ratio down to approximately its long term average