Semi-daily Thoughts

scottvanv on February 25th, 2020

As usual, a big market drop got me interested in the market again. Above please find a very long term look at the Dow … since before the Great Depression (suggest clicking to enlarge). I drew the red line five years ago(!), and note how we’ve been bumping up against it recently. Also note how […]

Continue reading about Massive Inflection Point

scottvanv on June 25th, 2018

Pretty sure no one is using this blog for market timing, and no one should be.  I had meant to post for some time that the market hadn’t really firmed like I thought it was going to per my last post, so when the market dropped a lot today, I thought I should post again.  We’re […]

Continue reading about Not paying enough attention …

scottvanv on May 21st, 2018

If I were still studying the market rigorously, the timings of these “get in, get out” posts would be much better.  With that said, if one had gotten out on my last post, you’d have mitigated a possible much larger decline, while still only losing out on around a 4% gain.  Looking a bit further […]

Continue reading about Market firming

scottvanv on April 3rd, 2018

Without going into a lot of detail (simply due to the fact that I can’t spend a lot of time writing these anymore) … a larger decline is looking more and more likely based on some ugly charts.  Not a good time to be in equities.

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scottvanv on February 8th, 2018

I know that all 2 of you that read this blog are cursing me for not getting you out of the market prior to this precipitous decline.  But, I’m not actively trading at the moment, so the market only really piques my interest when something crazy like these big drops occur, so this happened too […]

Continue reading about Decline happened too fast (sorry) … huge crash not likely.

This tax bill is rather Bigly.  It drops the Fed corporate tax rate by 40%(!), which brings the S&P 500 PE Ratio to around 18.6 (including an average of tacked-on local taxes), not far above the long term average (gee, it’s almost like the market knew this was going to happen).  However, the Shiller PE […]

Continue reading about Tax bill just brought the S&P PE Ratio down to approximately its long term average

scottvanv on September 12th, 2017

Just based on the charts, as we come to new highs, looks like it’s safer to be in stocks right now than my last post suggested … Please note that we’re at a pretty high valuation, so I’m pretty quick to pull the trigger on a go-to-cash recommendation.  Having said that, this bull market could continue […]

Continue reading about Water is saf(er)

scottvanv on August 10th, 2017

Just a short note to keep up my documented streak of calling market turns.  Today’s drop could portend a much larger drop.  There’s no harm in going to cash at the moment.

Continue reading about Risk is high that a short or longer term top is in

scottvanv on December 7th, 2016

A little over one year and three months ago, in my last post, I said, “…best case we’re probably just going to sideways for a couple years.”  Well, we’ve certainly hit my best case.  I’m posting now because my predicted upturn is coming a bit sooner than my prediction.  See chart just below … the […]

Continue reading about Hope has returned to the land …

So … this precipitous drop got me interested in the market again.  I’m still 100% cash, so I’ve only been monitoring in terms of what the economy is doing. But, I’m pretty confident in this post, so I may just start trading the general market next week. I’ll let you know if I get in, […]

Continue reading about Don’t Panic: Short Term Target Correction & Dow 22,000 in 2023