Semi-daily Thoughts

scottvanv on April 3rd, 2018

Without going into a lot of detail (simply due to the fact that I can’t spend a lot of time writing these anymore) … a larger decline is looking more and more likely based on some ugly charts.  Not a good time to be in equities.

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scottvanv on February 8th, 2018

I know that all 2 of you that read this blog are cursing me for not getting you out of the market prior to this precipitous decline.  But, I’m not actively trading at the moment, so the market only really piques my interest when something crazy like these big drops occur, so this happened too […]

Continue reading about Decline happened too fast (sorry) … huge crash not likely.

This tax bill is rather Bigly.  It drops the Fed corporate tax rate by 40%(!), which brings the S&P 500 PE Ratio to around 18.6 (including an average of tacked-on local taxes), not far above the long term average (gee, it’s almost like the market knew this was going to happen).  However, the Shiller PE […]

Continue reading about Tax bill just brought the S&P PE Ratio down to approximately its long term average

scottvanv on September 12th, 2017

Just based on the charts, as we come to new highs, looks like it’s safer to be in stocks right now than my last post suggested … Please note that we’re at a pretty high valuation, so I’m pretty quick to pull the trigger on a go-to-cash recommendation.  Having said that, this bull market could continue […]

Continue reading about Water is saf(er)

scottvanv on August 10th, 2017

Just a short note to keep up my documented streak of calling market turns.  Today’s drop could portend a much larger drop.  There’s no harm in going to cash at the moment.

Continue reading about Risk is high that a short or longer term top is in

scottvanv on December 7th, 2016

A little over one year and three months ago, in my last post, I said, “…best case we’re probably just going to sideways for a couple years.”  Well, we’ve certainly hit my best case.  I’m posting now because my predicted upturn is coming a bit sooner than my prediction.  See chart just below … the […]

Continue reading about Hope has returned to the land …

So … this precipitous drop got me interested in the market again.  I’m still 100% cash, so I’ve only been monitoring in terms of what the economy is doing. But, I’m pretty confident in this post, so I may just start trading the general market next week. I’ll let you know if I get in, […]

Continue reading about Don’t Panic: Short Term Target Correction & Dow 22,000 in 2023

scottvanv on August 20th, 2015

Overall, the chart patterns look ominous.  Absolutely no reason to be in equities right now. My best guess is that the Nasdaq will drop to around 3,900 before bottoming, and it will likely be a sharp drop. Dow somewhere around 14,400.  Let’s see if I’m right …

Continue reading about Lick Your Wounds, Go to Cash

scottvanv on October 28th, 2014

The market is back to about where I said to get out … we’re not quite out of this pattern, and the odds of a precipitous drop are higher than normal, but are far less than a couple of weeks ago.  If we go above $17,500 on the Dow, I think we’ll go quite a […]

Continue reading about You could get back in here

scottvanv on October 9th, 2014

While I have no positions currently (even in my 401K), and haven’t for some time, I have still been watching the market, if just not as closely as when I’m active.  At the moment, I see no reason to be in the market, even for the longest term investors.  You can simply go to cash, […]

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