So … yesterday around midday I took a look at the fact that we had dropped 3,000 points and bounced. Unfortunately I wasn’t watching CNBC all morning like I was in 2009, so I couldn’t “feel” what was coming from the NY traders through the hosts to truly call a bottom. This left me a bit blind. However, given that we bounced almost precisely off where I said we would, I thought there was a possibility that we had bottomed. I texted a buddy to this effect … he disagreed, and we subsequently dropped again. I was wrong. Maybe. We stopped at just above 20,166, and then this morning we bottomed at 19,882 and rose over 1,000 points. Are we done? Maybe. Everything seemed a bit too calm this morning on CNBC (I did tune in today), but this might have been a consequence of the hosts and the traders all working from home. We’re ALL blind. We can’t “feel” each other. Having said that, I did watch a political podcast where the host had panicked-sold ALL his stock (a good sign for a reversal), and tons of liquidity is now being poured into the system, with lots of stimulus and really interesting forbearance programs in the works. This, combined with said strong response and a now realistic expectation of just how long this will likely last (Jun to Aug), the market may have priced in all of the worst news and uncertainty. The speed of this decline has been phenomenal … if we drop further my next target would be 18,350 then if we go below 14,200 … oh my. I am cautiously optimistic, but if I were still trading I’d be in cash getting ready to buy or possibly short, depending on how the next few days plays out.

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