First, let me say this…all of my positions have sold off recently.  I am 100% cash at the moment.  I haven’t posted recently because, frankly, I’ve been befuddled.  Leading stocks are treading water.  Or they’re shortable.  And yet my fractal analysis of the Dow tells me that it’s going to go up…for quite some time…even to Dow 20,000+.  And if this occurs, we’re likely out of danger of a massive crash for decades.  QE infinity might just work.  Bernanke could well be known as a hero who saved us from our own stupidity by separating out balance sheet bankruptcies (read: massive unemployment) from a social mood that prevents us from fixing clearly identifiable problems.  Concurrently, something is happening, a change occurring.   Society is changing.  We’re becoming more liberal.  Getting rich is getting less important than taking care of everyone — e.g. Obamacare.  This is cyclical, and we’ll revert back after too much liberal excess (with lots of  “I told you so’s.” from Conservatives).  So traditional growth stocks, e.g. tech, are not where the big money is playing at the moment.  But I’ve yet to do the research to find out where it is playing (stay tuned for a post on this).  So in the meantime, since I seem to be doing awful well at predicting even daily moves of the Dow I’m going to start trading Dow futures.  Don’t get me wrong…it’s quite possible the gloom and doomers are correct, that all this money printing will cause massive inflation (which could be one reason why my Dow analysis only points up).  But, their arguments are always, “NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAVE WE BEEN ABLE TO PRINT MONEY TO GET OUT OF THESE MESSES. IT’S ALWAYS LED TO DISASTER!!!!”  And they’re always preaching at the top of their lungs, which makes me doubt them all the more.  They assume we don’t learn.  And yet, the amount of goods and services we produce today is on order of 500 fold what it was just a hundred years ago.  Phenomenal.  Clearly, we learn.  So if Bernanke can simply replace the monetary base that was and has been wiped out by the crashes and stimulate a bit to counter the recent lack of demand by now saving baby boomers, a delicate balancing act for sure…we might just muddle our way through this mess without a financial disaster.  We’ll end up on the other side more wary, with hopefully, less destructive bubbles, and a fruitful, generally happier, healthier society.  Time will tell.

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