Leading stocks are breaking out…almost too many good charts to choose from.  But with the Debt debate set to go crazy in Feb, I’m pretty wary of this lasting very long.  So I’m going to enter a bunch of positions tomorrow, but again with tight stops.

Update on my December trades:  all but three positions sold off due to the tight stops.  And unfortunately CELG sold and then popped from about 80 to 92 in the last couple of days.  If I had the time to do actually do this daily, I might have re-bought in.  Bummer.

My relatively big winner was a Put that I purchased on MLNX.  It’s dropped like a rock since I bought.  Unfortunately, volatility has also gone down dramatically recently (option prices drop with volatility) so I haven’t made as much money as I might have.  It still looks like it has further to drop, so I’m hanging on to the Put for now, even though the overall market look to go up pretty dramatically in medium term.

Market prediction (2 turns this time – let’s see how I do):  market goes up until about Mar then drops slightly on scares coming out of Washington.  But it doesn’t drop too far…not much at all because the market believes that whatever deal emerges will come at the last moment, no matter how bad it seems.  It then powers up into Q3ish to around Dow 15,200ish, drops more significantly to around 13,500ish (based on who knows what), then moves up again to around Dow 17,000 in April 2014.  And then unfortunately this is where, according to this model, the next big crash hits (again, Iran?  Or maybe our debt finally is too much? (much worse)).

 

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