We are in the midst of a bull market, and we have been for about a month.  I got so sucked in to the view that the world was falling apart that I ignored the “tightening up” of the market, a sure sign that things were improving.  Now, this could falter at any time as I still believe that we are in a long term decline.  But, for the intermediate term, things look relatively safe.  I think what happened is that, even without a Greek deal closed, the ECB is now printing money which will prevent a liquidity crisis.  We still have our solvency problems, but these are either going to take a long time to cause a real problem, or just maybe we’ve come so close to the brink that we just might solve them.  My true hope here is that we’ll vote in one party or another to all three branches, and that that party decides once and for all to solve our debt problem.  I would prefer the Republicans, but at this point I don’t care.  Our debt is our number one problem…and nothing else.  Either higher taxes or less spending, I really don’t care.  Just get us out of this debt, or the U.S. might just cease to exist.  It’s that serious.  Cool article here:  saying that the stock market is predicting that Obama will be defeated.  I think the most likely thing to happen is the Dems lose in a complete and utter landslide.  I’ll happily kick Pelosi/Reed to the curb.  I was fairly neutral to negative on Obama, until his State of the Union address, where he had nary a mention of our debt load (not to mention the complete and utter stupidity of turning down that oil pipeline from Canada – name escapes me at the moment).  So I’ll now more than happily kick him out of office as well.  By the way, if you think jobs is our number one problem it’s not.  It’s simply a symptom of our debt load and bloated government.  A credible long term solution to this problem will energize companies to hire.   By the way, the Republicans are not totally without blame here…giving just a little on higher taxes (we’re at historical lows right now), might just go a long way to helping out.

So, for the Bull Market…I’m back to stock picking versus fretting over the survival of the U.S.  I’ll be looking to add these positions tomorrow for a total of about 40% of my portfolio:  JAZZ, QCOR, FFIV, EXXI.  These stocks are not for the faint of heart…they’re leading high growth stocks, and they’ll be the first to falter before the market as a whole does, so I do not recommend these for anyone who does not watch the market on a daily basis.  But this is how I can time the market…if these falter in unison, then the whole market is about to falter (which is how I got out before the semi-crash last year).  On my watch list are: ACOR, ALLT, FSL, Z, and AAPL.  I think these are also good picks, but for technical reasons, they don’t have good entry points at the moment.

1 Comment on Bull Market

  1. Go to Cash says:

    […] “There’s always another hand.”  As I’ve done in the past, and documented here (but this time without the extreme fear I was experiencing prior to that post), I can tell you when […]

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