So..by now perhaps many of you are thinking that I was crying wolf.  I’ve never claimed to try to be 100% correct.  And right now, while the market has tightened up, it could still go either way.  I’m still 100% cash, but if things start looking better, I might tentatively put my toe in the long water, as many leading stocks are starting to come to life (but many others are not — the market is quite conflicted at the moment).  I’ve recently read a most fascinating book:  “The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior” by, once again, Robert Prechter.  This book includes what I think is by far the best model of human behavior as related to the stock market, basically applying fractals to our herding instincts found in the limbic portios of our brains, translated into mass optimism vs. pessimism, and measured by the stock market.  Absolutely fascinating, and it takes my original theory to a whole new level.  Unfortunately, Prechter has been a permabear since 1995!  And while he’s been right, twice, about massive crashes, he’s been completely wrong about the timing for a very, very long time.  Most of the other sources I count on are either uncertain, or still expecting a crash.  I think our debt problems could go either way: a massive crash (triggered by Hungary/Italy/Greece/China/Iran — who knows) leading to a very big depression, or perhaps we’ll have very slow growth for a very long time, as happened for 20 years from 1870-1890.  I’m not much more positive than that, although I’d very much like to be.  Net, net, the risk is still quite high that we’ll have a big crash, but I think it’s a tad less than it was a month ago.  Unless you’re willing to get out very quickly, I do not currently recommend any long positions.

Leave a Reply