Back at the precipice: get out of the market, even your retirement accounts

View the full VIX chart at Wikinvest

Getting the daily timing of this is very, very difficult.  But, we are in for a major crash.  The VIX (volatility index) is declining along with a decline in the market (it usually goes up), which tells me that it’s quite possible the big boys are now sneaking into the market to sell (orderly big boy orders “cushion” smaller orders up or down, dampening volatility).  This is like a game…its’ likely that everyone in the know is sneaking in their sell orders…but once it becomes too obvious, that’s when the panic selling begins, with very few buyers.  I’ll closely watch the market tomorrow…I’m also waiting for one of my favorite indicators to issue a sell signal (just today it went to cash from buy — I’ve correctly ignored its last 4 signals (“Use the Force Luke”)…but this time I think it just might be correct).   The timing I’m basing on technical analysis…the fundamentals, well…we’re done.  Read the book Endgame: The End of the Debt Supercycle and How It Changes Everything last week. There is simply not enough creditors left in the world to backstop anyone.  Just today, in a buried article, I read the word ‘depression’ in a mainstream magazine, Business Week, referring to Great Britain.  They have far more debt relative to GDP than almost anyone else, except perhaps Japan.  You don’t hear about them because they have the ability to inflate their way out by printing the pound.  Greece/Italy is a bigger problem, because Europe will not bring themselves to “fix” (read: kick the can down the road) their problem.  The big wild card is the Fed.  Will they inflate our way out of this?  I have no idea.  The one thing about Robert Prechter (remember, he wrote the book that felt like I was reading a book to a movie I’d seen) is that he was wrong on his prognostications about how far the Fed would actually go.  But he’s been dead on regarding how everything else is trading, including Gold and commodities…all dropping, signaling deflation.  (Gold is NOT a haven right now.)  Cash is King.  I don’t even trust the U.S. gov’t to pay its T-bills (relative to the yield)…I’m just staying in cash, in the most trusted currency in the world, the U.S. dollar, and next week I’ll spread my money around some smaller local banks with a strong financial rating (www.weissratings.com – it’s free!  Use it, please) linked to a strong brokerage, Interactive Brokers (who, by the way, only charges a dollar per trade) so that I can buy my Puts when, hopefully this time, my timing is right (the Fed’s move two weeks ago only two days after I bought my Puts should indicate just how in tune I am with the market).  Stay safe everyone…unless you’re shorting, it’s just not worth it to be in anything but cash/T-bills right now…you may not get your money back for years, if ever.